# NAHB Multifamily Production Index Falls to 41 in Q3 2026 as Occupancy Gauge Drops to 69 > Every MPI component is below 50. Kip Lewis blamed rates, construction costs versus rents, and approval delays. Robert Dietz said NAHB's 2027 forecast shows a decline in multifamily starts even as occupancy still prints above break-even. - URL: https://www.yourcaio.co/news/nahb-multifamily-mpi-41-moi-69-q3-2026-november-2026 - Published: 2026-11-10 - Author: David Cartolano (https://www.yourcaio.co/about) - Category: Market Trends - Property type: Multifamily - Tags: NAHB, MPI, MOI, Developer Sentiment, Multifamily Starts - Source: [NAHB](https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2026/11/multifamily-developer-confidence-weakens-in-third-quarter) ## Key Takeaways - NAHB's Multifamily Production Index read 41 in the third quarter of 2026, down five points year over year, according to the November 5, 2026 Multifamily Market Survey. - The Multifamily Occupancy Index read 69, also down five points year over year, remaining above the 50 break-even line that signals more owners calling occupancy good than poor. - All four MPI components printed below 50: garden/low-rise 46, mid/high-rise 33, subsidized 49, and built-for-sale 31. - Asked to compare current conditions with three months earlier, 66% of developers said the market was about the same, 28% said worse, and 6% said better. - NAHB sent the survey to 1,290 multifamily developers and received 55 responses; the group says indexes should be compared year over year until seasonal adjustment is possible. **NAHB's Multifamily Production Index printed 41 in the third quarter of 2026**, **down five points year over year**, and the **Multifamily Occupancy Index printed 69**, also **down five**, the National Association of Home Builders reported **November 5, 2026**. **Every MPI component is below 50**. **Sixty-six percent** of developers said the market is **about the same as three months ago**. That is the split operators should underwrite: **starts look poor**, **occupied buildings still look decent**, and **nobody thinks the tape just turned**. Garden product, which carries **half** the production index, dropped through break-even. High-rise and condos were already there. --- ## What Do MPI 41 and MOI 69 Mean on NAHB's Scale? Both indexes run **0 to 100**. **Above 50** means more respondents call conditions **good** than **poor**. **Below 50** means the reverse. MPI is a weighted average of four start conditions: garden/low-rise (**0.50**), mid/high-rise (**0.33**), subsidized (**0.12**), and built-for-sale (**0.05**). MOI weights occupancy of existing rentals: garden (**0.60**), mid/high-rise (**0.25**), subsidized (**0.15**). | Component | Q3 2026 | YoY change | |-----------|---------|------------| | MPI (overall) | 41 | -5 | | Garden / low-rise MPI | 46 | -5 | | Mid / high-rise MPI | 33 | -4 | | Subsidized MPI | 49 | -6 | | Built-for-sale MPI | 31 | -4 | | MOI (overall) | 69 | -5 | | Garden MOI | 70 | -6 | | Mid / high-rise MOI | 59 | -7 | | Subsidized MOI | 83 | +2 | NAHB redesigned the survey in **2023** and still lacks enough history to seasonally adjust. The press release is explicit: **compare year over year, not quarter to quarter**. The published table still shows MPI sliding **44 / 43 / 41** across 2026's first three quarters, and MOI snapping back to **69** after **74** in Q2, matching Q1's low in the series that starts in Q3 2023. --- ## Why Did Developer Sentiment Soften? Kip Lewis, director of construction management at OCCH in Columbus, Ohio, and chairman of NAHB's Multifamily Council, named the three constraints every construction lender already has in the file: > "Developer sentiment about new multifamily production has definitely softened, due to challenges such as rising interest rates, construction costs that are high relative to rents, and problems getting projects approved and connected to roads and utilities. As a result, many projects are taking longer to complete." - **Kip Lewis, Chairman, NAHB Multifamily Council** That is a **duration** problem as much as a **starts** problem. A deal that still pencils can miss its rate lock because the city will not sign the utility letter. Mid/high-rise at **33** is the vertical version of that delay: more steel, more agency touchpoints, worse sentiment. Garden's drop to **46** is the bigger index event because of the **50%** weight. When the workhorse product crosses below 50, the headline MPI cannot hide in condos or tax-credit extras. Subsidized at **49** is the closest to break-even and still negative. For-sale at **31** says the condo bid is not a release valve. --- ## What Is Robert Dietz Forecasting for 2027 Starts? NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz connected the MPI print to the association's forward calendar: > "It is not surprising that the MPI is down year-over-year given supply-side headwinds such as high interest rates and a rising rental vacancy rate. Due to the headwinds still facing the industry, NAHB's 2027 forecast shows a decline for multifamily starts. And although the administration's regulatory reform efforts are helping to ease some cost pressures, the multifamily sector would still benefit from an expedited permit process and lower rates on development and construction loans." - **Robert Dietz, Chief Economist, NAHB** Dietz wants **two** things: **faster permits** and **cheaper construction debt**. California just funded affordable apartments through [Proposition 1's $7.2 billion multifamily allocation](https://www.yourcaio.co/news/california-proposition-1-11-25-billion-housing-bond-november-2026) and **rejected** CEQA-streamlining Proposition 45. That is Dietz's sentence in ballot form: money without an expedited process. [RealPage's October update](https://www.yourcaio.co/news/realpage-october-2026-apartment-rent-cut-1-7-percent-yoy-november-2026) already showed **same-store effective rents down 0.7%** month over month, occupancy at **95%**, and **304,800** units absorbed versus **about 318,000** completed in the year through Q3. NAHB's "rising rental vacancy" line and RealPage's first down month of 2026 are the same tape from two desks. --- ## Do Developers Think Conditions Changed in the Last 90 Days? NAHB asks a separate three-month comparison because the indexes are not seasonally adjusted. In Q3 2026: - **Better:** **6%** - **About the same:** **66%** - **Worse:** **28%** A year earlier those shares were **10% / 68% / 22%**. The majority still sees a **sideways** market. The bearish tail got fatter. Only **6%** see improvement, which is why "stabilizing" should not be confused with "turning up." The sample is thin. NAHB mailed **1,290** multifamily developers and got **55** responses. Treat the print as a **sentiment flag**, not a census. RealtyWire noted NMHC's recent construction survey found **29%** of apartment developers started fewer projects last quarter, which points the same direction even if the panels differ. --- ## Which Product Types Still Have Occupancy Cushion? MOI at **69** is not a vacancy crisis. It is a **weaker good**. Subsidized occupancy at **83** is the standout: tax-credit and other income-restricted stock is still filling, and that component **rose two points** year over year. Garden occupancy at **70** remains comfortably above 50 even as garden **production** fell below 50. That is the classic late-supply sequence: **existing gardens lease**, **new gardens get harder to start**. Mid/high-rise occupancy at **59** is the softest rental bucket and still net-positive. Pair that with MPI **33** and the high-rise story is: **buildings in place are okay**, **new towers are not**. [Trademark and Morgan still broke ground on 362 Oak Lawn units in Dallas](https://www.yourcaio.co/news/trademark-morgan-oak-lawn-362-units-november-2026) in November, which is what a **site-specific** infill bet looks like when the **national** production index is 41. National sentiment is not a local prohibition. --- ## The Numbers Worth Writing Down - **MPI:** **41** (**-5** YoY) - **MOI:** **69** (**-5** YoY) - **Garden MPI / MOI:** **46 / 70** - **Mid/high-rise MPI / MOI:** **33 / 59** - **Subsidized MPI / MOI:** **49 / 83** - **For-sale MPI:** **31** - **Same vs. 3 months ago:** **66%** (**28%** worse, **6%** better) - **Responses:** **55** of **1,290** surveyed --- ## Occupied Stock Is Fine; The Pipeline Is the Tell MPI **41** is a **starts** call. MOI **69** is an **operations** call. Mixing them into one "multifamily is weak" headline is how people mis-time acquisitions. Existing gardens and subsidized assets still clear NAHB's good-versus-poor test. New mid-rise, high-rise, and condo product does not. Dietz already told you the 2027 starts line is **down**. The 66% "same as three months ago" majority is not a rebound thesis. It is a **grind**. Price occupied, supply-constrained submarkets. Do not underwrite a 2027 delivery boom off this survey. --- ## Sources - [Multifamily Developer Confidence Weakens in Third Quarter](https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2026/11/multifamily-developer-confidence-weakens-in-third-quarter), NAHB, November 5, 2026 - [Multifamily Market Survey (MMS)](https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/multifamily-market-survey), NAHB - [Multifamily Market Survey - Q3 2026 Table 1](https://www.nahb.org/-/media/NAHB/news-and-economics/docs/housing-economics/mms/2026-q3/table1-pdf-2026q3.pdf), NAHB Economics and Housing Policy Group - [Multifamily Developer Confidence Falls to 41, NAHB Says](https://realtywire.com/nahb-multifamily-market-survey-q3-2026/), RealtyWire, November 5, 2026 - [Multifamily Developer Sentiment Slides as Headwinds Persist](https://www.multifamilyexecutive.com/design-development/multifamily-developer-sentiment-slides-headwinds-persist), Multifamily Executive ## Frequently Asked Questions ### What is the NAHB Multifamily Production Index for Q3 2026? The MPI was 41 in the third quarter of 2026, down five points from a year earlier, NAHB reported November 5. A reading below 50 means more respondents called current production conditions poor than good. All four components also sat below 50. ### What is the NAHB Multifamily Occupancy Index for Q3 2026? The MOI was 69, down five points year over year. Garden/low-rise occupancy scored 70, mid/high-rise 59, and subsidized 83. All three remain above 50, so owners still rate occupancy as net-good, just weaker than a year ago. ### Why did multifamily developer confidence fall in Q3 2026? Kip Lewis, chairman of NAHB's Multifamily Council, cited rising interest rates, construction costs that are high relative to rents, and delays getting projects approved and connected to roads and utilities. Chief economist Robert Dietz added a rising rental vacancy rate and said NAHB's 2027 forecast shows fewer multifamily starts. ### Do multifamily developers think the market improved in the last three months? No. In Q3 2026, 66% said the market was about the same as three months earlier, 28% said worse, and only 6% said better. NAHB asks that comparison separately because the MPI and MOI are not yet seasonally adjusted and should be read year over year. ### Which multifamily product type has the weakest production sentiment? Built-for-sale condominiums scored 31 on the MPI, with mid/high-rise rentals at 33. Garden/low-rise, which carries half the MPI weight, fell to 46. Subsidized units were closest to break-even at 49 but still in negative territory. --- Cite as: David Cartolano, "NAHB Multifamily Production Index Falls to 41 in Q3 2026 as Occupancy Gauge Drops to 69," YourCAIO.co, 2026-11-10, https://www.yourcaio.co/news/nahb-multifamily-mpi-41-moi-69-q3-2026-november-2026