# BMS Group's Fall 2026 Outlook: Street Rates Still Down 1.9% While REIT Move-Ins Turn Positive > Consultant BMS Group read the same Yardi Matrix bulletins REIT analysts cite and concluded fall 2026 is not a clean rebound. Street rates keep falling in 26 of 30 top metros, yet Extra Space hit 94.2% occupancy and new supply is slowing fast. Developers and buyers get opposite homework from the same dataset. - URL: https://www.yourcaio.co/news/bms-fall-2026-self-storage-street-rates-supply-outlook-october-2026 - Published: 2026-10-14 - Author: David Cartolano (https://www.yourcaio.co/about) - Category: Market Trends - Tags: BMS Group, Yardi Matrix, Street Rates, Supply Pipeline, REIT Fundamentals - Source: [BMS Group](https://www.bmsgrp.com/self-storage-market-outlook-what-the-fall-2026-data-means-for-developers-and-investors/) ## Key Takeaways - BMS Group's fall 2026 market outlook, citing Yardi Matrix, reported national advertised self-storage rates fell 1.9% year over year in August 2026 after 1.6% declines in July and 1.5% in June, with a $16.39 per square foot national average asking rate. - Yardi Matrix attributed much of 2026 occupancy improvement to fewer move-outs, not stronger new-rental demand, per BMS; weighted-average same-store REIT revenue growth reached 0.7% in Q2 2026 with Extra Space at 94.2% occupancy and Public Storage and CubeSmart posting 1.6% and 1.7% new-customer move-in rate growth year over year. - Yardi's Q3 2026 forecast projects 52.93 million net rentable square feet of completions in 2026, down almost 19% from 2025, followed by 45.25 million in 2027, per BMS; August 2026 under-construction stock totaled 43.8 million square feet across 594 projects (2.1% of existing inventory). - Phoenix led top-30 metros with 6.2% of existing stock under construction in August 2026 (down from 6.6% in July), Orlando followed at 4.6%, while Salt Lake City, Portland, and Minneapolis sat at the bottom of the pipeline rankings, per BMS citing Yardi. - BMS warned buyers that in-place rent rolls can overstate value when street rates sit far below existing customer rates, a gap [Capright quantified at Public Storage in Q2 2026](https://www.yourcaio.co/news/capright-october-2026-reit-occupancy-ecri-street-gap-2026) while [Colliers' October Virginia portfolio sale](https://www.yourcaio.co/news/colliers-simply-storage-virginia-2883-unit-portfolio-october-2026) still drew institutional bids. BMS Group's fall 2026 self-storage outlook, built on **Yardi Matrix** national data and **Q2 2026 REIT** results, says the sector is in an **early recovery with a long tail**: **national advertised rates fell 1.9% year over year in August 2026**, yet **weighted-average same-store REIT revenue grew 0.7%** in Q2 as **move-outs slowed**. Both statements are true. The space between them is where 2026 underwriting lives. --- ## What Are National Street Rates Doing in Fall 2026? BMS cites Yardi Matrix's August 2026 bulletin: | Metric | Value (Yardi via BMS) | |--------|------------------------| | YoY advertised rate change, Aug. 2026 | -1.9% | | Prior months (YoY) | -1.6% (Jul.), -1.5% (Jun.) | | National average asking rate | $16.39/SF (blended unit mix) | | Non-climate YoY declines | 26 of top 30 metros | | Climate-controlled YoY declines | 28 of top 30 metros | | Climate vs non-climate YoY | -2.3% vs -1.5% | August extended a **seven-month** streak of year-over-year advertised rate declines, per BMS. Only a handful of metros bucked the trend: **Minneapolis**, **Salt Lake City**, **Indianapolis**, and **New York City** posted non-climate gains; **Austin** and **San Francisco** showed climate-controlled growth. That matches [September Yardi Matrix commentary](https://www.yourcaio.co/news/yardi-matrix-september-2026-advertised-rates-1-9-percent-august-2026) the site already published, but BMS translates the numbers into developer and investor homework. --- ## Why Is Occupancy Holding If Demand Is Soft? The better Q2 headline was REIT fundamentals, not street rates: - **0.7%** weighted-average same-store revenue growth for self-storage REITs in Q2 2026 - **Extra Space** ended Q2 at **94.2%** occupancy - **Public Storage** and **CubeSmart** reported **1.6%** and **1.7%** year-over-year growth in new-customer move-in rates BMS stresses Yardi's causal explanation: improvement came from **fewer move-outs**, not a surge of new renters. Weak home sales and migration mean households that would normally clear units during moves are staying put. That flatters occupancy metrics today and creates a **turnover cliff** tomorrow. When housing activity normalizes, long-tenure customers paying above-street rents will leave, and operators must backfill at **August 2026** asking rates. [Capright's October REIT note](https://www.yourcaio.co/news/capright-october-2026-reit-occupancy-ecri-street-gap-2026) made the same point with Public Storage's **41%** ECRI-to-street spread in Q2 2026. BMS tells private buyers to run that math door by door before trusting trailing NOI. --- ## Is New Supply Finally Rolling Over? Supply is the clearest bullish data line in the outlook. BMS highlights Yardi's Q3 2026 forecast: - **52.93 million** net rentable square feet of completions in **2026**, down almost **19%** from **2025** - **45.25 million** forecast in **2027** - **594** projects under construction in August 2026 (**43.8 million** SF), **2.1%** of existing stock - **1,499** planned and **299** prospective projects nationally Marcus & Millichap expects **2026 deliveries to be the smallest since 2016**, BMS adds. Fewer lease-up boxes competing on price is the main reason operators call the sector recovering even while advertised rates print negative. Local reality still diverges. **Phoenix** led top-30 metros at **6.2%** of stock under construction (down from **6.6%** in July). **Orlando** followed at **4.6%**. **Salt Lake City**, **Portland**, and **Minneapolis** ranked at the bottom, aligning with Minneapolis showing up among the few markets with positive rate growth. Extra Space's Q2 call named **Houston**, **Tampa**, and **Phoenix** as tough new-customer pricing markets while **Austin**, **Dallas**, and **Miami** turned positive, per BMS. National forecasts will not save a buyer in a 6% pipeline submarket. --- ## What Does BMS Tell Developers and Buyers to Do? **Developers:** BMS argues 2027 deliveries may face less competition than the 2023-2025 wave, but deals must work at **today's street rates**, not 2022 peaks. Stress longer lease-up. Watch unit mix: climate-controlled rates fell harder in August. Track **every entitled project** in the trade area, not just open competitors. **Buyers:** Institutional capital still likes the sector; [Public Storage closed its roughly $10.5 billion NSA merger in July 2026](https://www.yourcaio.co/news/capright-october-2026-reit-occupancy-ecri-street-gap-2026). Private bidders still closed scaled trades like the **[2,883-unit Simply Storage Virginia portfolio](https://www.yourcaio.co/news/colliers-simply-storage-virginia-2883-unit-portfolio-october-2026)** on **October 12, 2026**. The risk is paying stabilized pricing for a rent roll that reflects above-market in-place tenants. BMS also flags regulatory noise national data misses, citing Los Angeles wildfire-related emergency pricing restrictions that Public Storage estimated cost about **50 basis points** of full-year revenue until rules expired. Local politics can cap rents even when Phoenix pipeline charts look scary. --- ## The Numbers Worth Writing Down - **-1.9%** YoY national advertised rates, August 2026 (Yardi via BMS) - **$16.39/SF** national average asking rate - **0.7%** Q2 2026 weighted-average same-store REIT revenue growth - **94.2%** Extra Space Q2 occupancy - **+1.6% / +1.7%** YoY new-customer move-in rates at PSA and CubeSmart - **52.93M SF** 2026 completion forecast, **~19%** below 2025 - **43.8M SF** under construction, **594** projects, **2.1%** of stock - **6.2%** Phoenix pipeline share (top-30 leader) --- ## National Recovery, Local Homework Fall 2026 is not a V-shaped rebound. It is **slower supply**, **sticky occupancy**, and **negative street rates** in most metros, with REIT move-in pricing finally printing small positives off a low base. National dashboards tell you direction. They do not tell you whether **6741 Allentown Blvd.** in Harrisburg or a **third building pad** in Opelousas can absorb another rate cut. That is why consultants like BMS keep selling feasibility work, and why operators keep subscribing to tools from [StorTrack MCP](https://www.yourcaio.co/news/stortrack-mcp-chatgpt-gemini-expansion-october-2026) to [MyIntelBrief's street diffs](https://www.yourcaio.co/news/myintelbrief-competitor-tracking-self-storage-october-2026) in the same month. The macro story improved. The underwriting story got harder, not easier. --- ## Sources - [Self Storage Market Outlook: What the Fall 2026 Data Means for Developers and Investors](https://www.bmsgrp.com/self-storage-market-outlook-what-the-fall-2026-data-means-for-developers-and-investors/), BMS Group, fall 2026 - [Self Storage Market Outlook – September 2026](https://www.yardimatrix.com/blog/self-storage-market-outlook/), Yardi Matrix, September 28, 2026 ## Frequently Asked Questions ### Are self-storage street rates still falling in fall 2026? Yes nationally, per BMS Group citing Yardi Matrix. Advertised rates fell 1.9% year over year in August 2026, the third straight month of deepening declines, to a $16.39 per square foot average. Non-climate rates fell in 26 of the top 30 metros; climate-controlled rates fell in 28 of 30. ### Why is self-storage occupancy improving if street rates are down? BMS cites Yardi Matrix's explanation: fewer move-outs, not stronger move-in demand. Home sales and migration remain soft, so tenants who would normally vacate during housing turnover are staying put. That props up occupancy but leaves a wide gap between in-place rents and lower street rates for new customers. ### How much is new self-storage supply slowing in 2026? Yardi's Q3 2026 forecast projects 52.93 million net rentable square feet of completions in 2026, down almost 19% from 2025, then 45.25 million in 2027, per BMS. August 2026 had 594 projects under construction totaling 43.8 million square feet, equal to 2.1% of existing stock. ### Which metros still have the heaviest self-storage construction pipelines? BMS cites Yardi Matrix: Phoenix had 6.2% of existing stock under construction in August 2026, Orlando 4.6%, and New York suburbs ranked third among top-30 metros. Texas and Florida markets generally dominate supply rankings, while Salt Lake City, Portland, and Minneapolis rank lowest. ### What does BMS recommend for self-storage buyers in fall 2026? BMS says large investors still favor the asset class but warns against paying for rent rolls that assume today's in-place rates will hold. Compare each unit size on the rent roll to competitor street rates before pricing a deal. Institutional portfolios like Virginia's 2,883-unit Simply Storage sale still clear when buyers see revenue-management upside. --- Cite as: David Cartolano, "BMS Group's Fall 2026 Outlook: Street Rates Still Down 1.9% While REIT Move-Ins Turn Positive," YourCAIO.co, 2026-10-14, https://www.yourcaio.co/news/bms-fall-2026-self-storage-street-rates-supply-outlook-october-2026